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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.